2. The Global Picture

In 2022, the world population reached 8 billion people, with 15-to-29-year-olds numbering 1.8 billion, or around 23.0 per cent of the total (World Bank, 2022). Almost half of the global population, and 60.0 per cent of the Commonwealth population, are under 30 years old.

However, the share of young people in the world is declining and that of older people is steadily increasing. Where societies are not prepared to manage the demographic transition, there may be undesirable consequences, such as workforce shortages, slowdowns in economic growth, overstretching of pension and healthcare systems, and the dissipation of demographic dividends (Bloom, 2016).

A critical element of preparedness is the creation of an enabling environment that will equip young people to ‘age well’ by maintaining their health, wellbeing and productivity now in order to reap the benefits in the future. The 2023 YDI summarises the state of youth development in 183 countries, including 50 of the 56 Commonwealth countries. This chapter reports on the trends in youth development from 2010 to 2022 and highlights the relative progress countries have made in improving the prospects and outcomes for their young citizens.

2.1 Overview

Figure 2.1 shows the worldwide results of the 2023 YDI. The countries in dark blue – mostly in Europe – have very high levels of youth development relative to the rest of the world. Countries in the lightest blue – mostly in Africa, Central America and South Asia – have the most room for improvement. Box 2.1 in the following section explains the criteria for grouping countries by low, medium, high and very high levels of youth development.

Surprisingly, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic did not alter the long-term trend of moderate but steady improvement in youth development of the past decade. The global score rose by 0.54 per cent between 2019 and 2021. This is slightly higher than the average rate of two-year improvement over the full 12 years, which stands at 0.48 per cent. The impact of the pandemic is only beginning to emerge, however, which reinforces the importance of continuing to study these trends in subsequent years to see what other changes will be revealed.

The improvements registered during these two years occurred across five out of six domains, though the largest improvements were in the Political and Civic Participation domain, in which the score rose by 4.9 per cent, and in the Employment and Opportunity domain, in which the score rose by 0.72 per cent. The improvement in the Political and Civic Participation domain over that short period was driven by increases of slightly more than 15 per cent in both the voiced opinion to an official indicator and the volunteered time indicator, while the improvement in Employment and Opportunity was driven by a 7.4 per cent increase in the account indicator (which measures access to bank accounts and the financial system). The only domain to register a deterioration in the two-year period (2019-2021), Peace and Security, saw a fall of 0.12 per cent.

On a global level, youth development has been improving but not all young people around the world have benefited equally. Of the 183 countries included in the 2023 YDI, 166, or 90.7 per cent, recorded improvements in their YDI score over the 12-year period, with the largest gains seen in Haiti, Côte d’Ivoire and Myanmar. Seventeen countries saw a decline in their YDI scores during the same period, with the greatest deteriorations recorded in Niger, South Sudan and Syria.

Progress was made in all six YDI domains, with the largest global improvement recorded in Employment and Opportunity, of 6.1 per cent between 2010 and 2022. Political and Civic Participation saw the second-largest average improvement, at 5.4 per cent, followed by Education, Equality and Inclusion, and Health and Wellbeing. Given the decline up to 2018, as reported in the 2020 YDI report, it is encouraging to see longer-term, albeit marginal, improvement in the Political and Civic Participation domain.

Peace and Security recorded the smallest improvement over 12 years, at 0.22 per cent. Figure 2.4 shows the percentage change in the global YDI score and each of the six YDI domains between 2010 and 2022.

Figure 2.5 shows the 2010–2022 changes across the 27 indicators of the YDI. The account indicator experienced the largest improvement, rising by 52.1 per cent, while the internal peace indicator experienced the largest deterioration, falling by over 2.0 per cent.

All nine regional groupings used in this report recorded improvements in their average YDI scores from 2010 to 2022. Sub-Saharan Africa recorded the largest improvement in average youth development levels, at 3.8 per cent, followed by South America, South Asia, Asia-Pacific, and the Russia and Eurasia region. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region recorded the smallest improvement from 2010 to 2022, of only 1.38 per cent. Figure 2.6 shows the percentage change in regional YDI scores between 2010 and 2022.

Despite having made significant progress since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa remained the region with the lowest average level of youth development in the world in 2022, with a score of 0.653. Furthermore, nine of the 10 lowest-ranked countries in the 2023 YDI are in sub-Saharan Africa (see Table 2.2). Afghanistan, part of the South Asia region, ranked as the lowest-scoring country in the 2023 YDI. Europe had the highest average level of youth development, with an average score of 0.816, followed by North America and the Asia-Pacific region. With the exception of Singapore, which is the highest-scoring country in the 2023 YDI, all of top 10 best-ranking countries in the 2023 YDI are in Europe (see Table 2.1).

Countries with the largest improvement in YDI scores between 2010 and 2022 are referred to as the largest risers. During the period, the top five risers were Haiti, Côte d’Ivoire, Myanmar, Indonesia and Burkina Faso. Haiti improved its YDI score by 21.1 per cent and Côte d’Ivoire by 14.4 per cent, while Myanmar, Indonesia and Burkina Faso recorded improvements of around 10 per cent each. These countries were also those to experience among the biggest changes in global ranking over the 12 years, with Indonesia, Thailand, Armenia and Myanmar undergoing the largest rank increases overall, each rising by between 32 and 38 places.

However, it should be noted that the rank increases and improved scores in Myanmar, Burkina Faso and Haiti will likely be affected once more up-to-date data is released for the past several years. Recent major events in each of these countries – namely, the Haitian political crisis that began in 2018, the 2021 coup d’état in Myanmar and two coups d’état in Burkina Faso in 2022 – will no doubt have significant impacts on their young people in the years ahead.

Niger, South Sudan, Syria, Yemen and Angola are the largest fallers in the 2023 YDI, with Niger recording a deterioration in youth development of 4.7 per cent. These countries were also those to experience among the largest declines in global ranking over the 12 years, with Syria, Libya, Azerbaijan, Ukraine and Yemen undergoing the largest rank decreases overall, each falling by between 26 and 40 places. On average, the top five most improved countries saw their scores rise by 13.0 per cent between 2010 and 2022 while the five largest fallers saw an average deterioration of 4.0 per cent.

2.2 Inequality in youth development

While the global average level of youth development between 2010 and 2022 improved, progress has been uneven. There are significant disparities in youth development between and within countries and regions.

Figure 2.9 compares average domain scores for countries with low, medium, high and very high YDI scores. The largest discrepancies between countries at low YDI levels and countries at very high YDI levels are recorded in the Education and the Employment and Opportunity domains. In the Education domain, the difference between the lowest and the highest YDI-level countries’ average score is 0.419 on the YDI scale of 0 to 1. In the Employment and Opportunity domain, the difference in average scores amounts to 0.068.

All countries, regardless of their level of youth development, received relatively low scores in the Political and Civic Participation domain. This can be explained in part by the relatively low levels of political and civic participation recorded globally on a number of indicators that make up this domain – specifically the volunteered time, voiced opinion to an official and recognition for community improvement indicators. On average, 23.2 per cent of youth globally reported volunteering their time in a 2021 survey, a 2.2 percentage point increase over 2020 and the highest rate since at least 2010. Similarly, 19.4 per cent stated that they had voiced their opinion to an official in the previous 30 days, a 1.6 per cent increase over 2020 and also the highest rate since at least 2010. However, only around 10.0 per cent recorded having received recognition for helping improve the city or area where they lived.

Conversely, all countries, regardless of youth development level, scored relatively well in the Health and Wellbeing domain. On average, very high YDI countries scored 0.876 in this domain. Overall, the difference in average scores between YDI levels in this domain is marginal, with the highest average score only 2.7 per cent higher than the lowest. The relatively small gap between low and very high YDI countries in the Health and Wellbeing domain is also in part a reflection of the fact that many low YDI countries scored comparatively well on certain behavioural and mental health indicators on which many high and very high YDI countries scored poorly. As detailed below, such indicators include those related to rates of addiction.

Figure 2.10 compares the average indicator scores for the 10 best- and 10 worst-performing countries in the 2023 YDI. The difference between the 10 highest-ranked and the 10 lowest-ranked countries worldwide was substantial for digital natives and economic marginalisation, with differences of over 0.866 and 0.833 respectively on the 0 to 1 YDI scale. It is important to note that more up-to-date data is required on this indicator to fully understand experiences across the world.

Figure 2.10 also highlights indicators on which the 10 highest-ranked countries score worse than the 10 lowest-ranked countries. These indicators are predominantly behavioural health indicators (drug abuse, tobacco consumption and alcohol abuse) as well as mental health and self-harm indicators. Thus, the 2023 YDI highlights how countries with high levels of youth development overall continue to be challenged in the area of health and wellbeing, particularly in ensuring their youth’s long-term physical and mental health. Data on mental and behavioural health may suffer from reliability issues as substance abuse and mental illnesses remain stigmatised, especially in lower- and middle-income countries, and therefore may go underreported (Mascayano et al., 2015).